I represent tenants and buyers in Miami-Dade, so I spend a lot of my week explaining the same contradiction: deals slowed down this year, but the market didn’t. Commercial sales ran about $1.16 billion in Q1 2026, off roughly 13% from a year earlier, and every time an owner sees that number they assume prices are sliding. They aren’t. Rents, occupancy, and price per foot have held. What fell was the number of buyers willing to borrow at today’s rates. Keep those two things separate and the 2026 picture gets a lot clearer.
Retail is the tightest I have seen it
Vacancy is sitting near a historic low around 3.0%, with the tri-county figure close to 3.5% and cap rates near 5.96%. When storefronts are this scarce, landlords simply do not blink on price, and it shows up in the sale comps: single-story retail has traded around a $675/SF median in Miami-Dade, with corridors like Coral Gables well beyond that. If you lease retail, understand your renewal leverage is thin right now. If you own it, you are holding one of the strongest asset classes in the state — but a quiet transaction market means you still have to price it exactly right to sell.
Office is quietly beating the country
The national office story is grim; Miami-Dade’s isn’t. Vacancy here is around 12.5% against roughly 17.8% nationally, and prime Brickell and Downtown product still trades at 4.5–5.5% caps. The catch worth knowing before you sign or list: it is a flight to quality. Trophy floors lease fast; tired Class B space is where the softness actually lives. Pricing a Class B building like it is Class A is the most common mistake I see owners make here.
Industrial has matured, not cracked
The warehouse frenzy is over, and that is fine — it settled into a high plateau rather than a slide. Vacancy held near 8.0% with rents around $16.42–$17.26 NNN, and the development pipeline is finally cooling, which quietly helps whoever already owns. Stabilized warehouses in Doral and Medley trade near 5.0–5.5% caps; in the sale record, warehouse product runs around a $316/SF median in Miami-Dade, with Doral closer to $508/SF. Rent growth normalized. It did not reverse.
So what would I tell you to do
Depends which side of the table you are on. If you own, the fundamentals are on your side, but this is a market that punishes a lazy asking price — get a real number before you list. If you lease, the tight vacancy means you have less room than you think, so start renewals early and put someone on your side of the deal. And if you are a buyer sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates, understand that the empty sideline is the opportunity: there is less competition for a well-underwritten deal today than there will be the moment rates ease. We track 57,096 Miami-Dade commercial parcels, and the read is consistent — scarce space, firm pricing, patient buyers.
Want the read on your specific building? Start with a free Broker Opinion of Value, check the price-per-SF benchmark, or see the Miami-Dade market page.
